Consumers are choosing to go out earlier, if at all, to then enjoy the comforts of home and connected entertainment, such as catching up on favorite Netflix shows. Consumers are also becoming more risk-averse in social settings, choosing screens over face-to-face engagements, especially when it comes to talking to strangers. This is also creating a consumer that’s increasingly single and lonelier. 

A January article in Bloomberg, by economist Allison Schrager, was titled “The Introverts Have Taken Over the U.S. Economy.” In it, Schrager highlights a marked shift in consumer preferences from late-night dining to early-evening reservations, underscoring the growing influence of introverted behaviors. Such changes, spotlighted by Schrager, signal a deeper transformation in consumer habits and norms post-pandemic, representing an ongoing shift that requires understanding and further study.

What does this mean for businesses? Consumer-facing industries such as entertainment, hospitality, and personal tech will have to find new ways to meet people where they are (which might be their bedrooms). Offerings might include restaurant quiet hours, or virtual cooking lessons that give the benefits of collaboration in a less-intimidating setting. Hospitality companies might show more tolerance, and even encouragement, for people to use their devices—including to pay restaurant bills.

But before we dig deeper into how to respond to these changes in society, let’s examine how we got here.

What Early Dining Says About Societal Change

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that people under 50 are increasingly frequenting bars and eateries earlier, a trend that started before the 2020 pandemic.

Schrager points to New York as an example of noteworthy shifts in dining behavior. Typically, 8 pm or later was considered the desirable time for dinner reservations. But according to Resy, a hospitality platform for restaurants, 5 p.m. is the new 8 p.m.

Resy data shows that since the pandemic, reservations across New York City made at 5:30 p.m. have jumped from an average of 7.75% over the past two years to 8.31% in the last six months. Meanwhile, 8 p.m. reservations have fallen to 7.8% of total dinner reservations in the city, down from 8.31%. 

While a change of about 7.2% may not seem huge, it’s in sync with other sources. Yelp Data found that, in 2023, 10% of all diners were seated between 2 and 5 p.m., which doubled from 5% compared to the same period in 2019. Simultaneously, 10% fewer reservations were made between 6 p.m. and midnight.

These shifts are enough to make some restaurateurs pay attention. 

Danny Meyer is the founder of Union Square Hospitality Group and Shake Shack. In a recent post on X, Meyer asked, “When did a 6:00 dinner reservation become the new 8:00, most prized table of the night—and will it last?”

Meyer also shared his theories behind the shift. He pondered whether working from home contributed to social isolation. “That’s why restaurant bars and seats are filling up ever earlier,” he observed on X. 

Meyer also acknowledged the new reality, that consumers have more entertainment and content than ever waiting for them back home. “Dine early, home earlier,” he said.

In response to Meyer, founder of Hint Water, Kara Goldin, also observed that more and more restaurants in San Francisco and Marin County in California, are closing earlier. “…so many restaurants close the kitchen at 8 and 9,” she shared.

I have first-hand experience with Goldin’s point. I was dining out recently in Orange County, Calif., and our waiter informed us that the kitchen was taking its last call at 8 p.m.

Jeffery Bank, CEO of Alicart Restaurant Group, shared with Marketplace that his restaurants are extremely busy between 4 and 6 p.m. “I do think you’re seeing a cultural shift, and I think that started with the pandemic,” he said. “People are just trying to enjoy themselves, I think, differently.”

The Pandemic Has Shifted Social Activities Earlier

During the pandemic, it was common for networking events, wine tastings, celebrations, and happy hours to be conducted online, during the workday, for long enough that it further shifted the trajectory of our social behaviors and norms. People learned to interact earlier.

“Afternoon parties have 100 % taken off since the pandemic,” Min Brown, a sales manager for the corporate event planning group Yaymaker, shared with the New York Times.

These new digital-first activities would leave people ready to unwind at home, as opposed to going out afterward.

Schrager also observed that, although going out on weekends spiked in 2022, it appears that, since then, fewer people are choosing to socialize on weekends than did in the past.

Instead, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they’re opting for in-home activities such as watching TV or playing video games.

Seeking Safety at Home

The shifts in social norms go beyond dining and weekend planning.

Last year, Date Psychology published findings that corroborate evolving “introverted” behaviors. The article cites a representative sample from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that found younger singles, particularly those who are part of Generation Z, are becoming increasingly more risk-averse. 

A 2021 sample from the CDC study also found teens are using drugs less, drinking less, having less sex, and attending fewer in-person parties or gatherings, which is also leading to increased loneliness.

When it comes to dating, for instance, they’re less likely to approach strangers in real life to interact or attempt to date. 

Psychologist Andrew Thomas recently conducted a poll and asked on X, “have you ever felt a profound and enduring state of unhappiness, uneasiness, and discontent about your singlehood?” 

More than half of men (55.1%) and just under half of women (44.9%) responded yes. 

The introvert economy and digital-first engagement could be perpetuating the situation. If you don’t talk to people IRL (in real life), then you either depend on others to talk to you in person or lean on apps to solve your craving for interpersonal connections. 

But Thomas’ approach spotlights this important shift in introverted or risk-averse behaviors. They contribute to the rise and impact of the new realities of unwanted singlehood. This results in developing the unintended emotions that arise from being excluded from relationships, even if their behaviors contribute to this state.

These trends and more could have staying power.

Digital Introverts Unite as a Generation of Connected Consumers

These observed “introverted” behavioral patterns may have accelerated during the stay-at-home days of COVID-19, but their evolution dates back years.

Well before 2020, my research into digital consumerism explored how social media, mobile devices, and on-demand apps were already nurturing digital-first behaviors and keeping people engaged on their screens at the cost of IRL interactions.

I referred to this emerging group of digital-first consumers as its own psychographic, “Generation-Connected” or Gen-C. This group was not organized by dates of birth but by shared digitally influenced behaviors, interests, values, and norms.

Living a digital-first lifestyle offered newfound conveniences and empowered consumers to take control of their own life narratives and experiences. Need a ride somewhere? There’s an app for that. Don’t want to go to your favorite restaurant but still craving that meal? There’s an app for that. Need groceries or supplies or electronics delivered within the hour? There’s an app for that. Want to find a date? You guessed it. There’s an app for that.

Nowadays, consumers have anything and everything they may want, all within reach.

These connected consumers intuitively turn to e-commerce and social commerce. They move faster. They are becoming less and less patient with digital-first convenience services such as ride-sharing, food delivery, curbside pickup, dating, and even the drone delivery services that are ramping up to serve them.

Observing these shifting digital-first activities gave way to what I described as “digital introverts.” Digital introversion wasn’t literal in its interpretation. It was a way of making these behavioral shifts relatable in a more general sense. 

The Move to a Screen-First Lifestyle

In my work over the years, I described how screen time, transacting in the sharing and on-demand economies, and exposure to online cultures and norms influenced screen-first actions. This was important to understanding cultural trends and documenting the differences in digital and traditional influence, decision-making, and outcomes.

For example, with Gen-C, it’s quite common to see people in social settings, at dinner, at live events, walking, and physically sharing space with others while immersed in their mobile devices. Anyone following the release of Apple’s Vision Pro spatial computing headset is already witnessing what “next” looks like.

While I recognized Gen-C as digital- or mobile-first, their behaviors are simply native and intuitive. Digital is just a way of life, and with it comes new behaviors, expectations, norms, and aspirations.

Because these behaviors are second nature, introversion became a function of efficiency and, perhaps, common sense.

We can all relate in many cases. Think about these scenarios for a moment.

Do you ask for help or read instructions for a new purchase, or do you watch a YouTube video to learn how to use or perform something?

When in a store, do you flag a representative to learn more about a product, or do you first look it up on your phone?

Have you ever broken up with or been broken up with by a text message?

Have you ghosted or ever been ghosted by someone in messaging?

Do you opt to date via apps instead of approaching someone in person?

Have you ever said something to someone online you’d never say to their face?

In many cases, doing something online is easier or more efficient than IRL. Digital introverts have become skilled at optimizing their decision-making and action-taking processes by first consulting and navigating their screens. This may have come at the cost of societal skills to interact and communicate with others in the way previous generations navigated the world. 

For better or worse, this is a new reality. Over time, these shifts will only develop into larger societal trends.

“Introversion” and Awareness May Be a Result of Growing Screen Time

When I published my book, Lifescale, I studied the effects of screen time and digital-first behaviors. I found an astonishing series of effects that made users more conscious, self-conscious, and introverted, without realizing it.

Their behaviors weren’t just changing due to using new devices or apps; they were evolving because they were introduced to new realities IRL and new possibilities on screen. Because of the reality of what these new worlds look like—and how they influence values—they were exposed to new norms and aspirations, too. 

Everything has changed and is still changing. The people you follow and interact with online and the new things you do and experience introduce distinct customs, ways, and habits. Over time, they reshape traditional conventions resulting in ever-shifting standards for what normal looks like.

New Opportunities and Challenges for Companies

The introvert economy is an emergent shift that’s worth paying attention to. And like all economies, it’s evolving. Consumer behaviors are evolving, too. Added up, the introvert economy signifies new market opportunities and potential threats. Those paying attention will better understand where to make changes, experiment, and learn.

Companies—especially those in entertainment, hospitality, technology, and consumer goods—can add value in key moments of truth by offering products and services that support engagement, well-being, and meaningful experiences that make going out matter. 

I call this an “ignite moment”—a moment when consumer engagement is intentional and in the experience, someone feels special, heard, recognized, or satisfied. With consumers becoming more conscious of their needs and priorities, businesses will benefit by creating products and services designed for them. It’s these thoughtful touches that make going out, meeting someone, shopping, etc., become more meaningful and desirable.

Added up, the introvert economy represents customers and employees who are experiencing changes from previous norms. No one has this figured out. No one knows how these shifts will play out. But if you’re willing to pay attention, to understand the people on the other side of a reservation, potential date, social gathering, or purchase, you can shift your perspective. In doing so, you will identify new opportunities to improve service and experience in these “ignite moments.” 

How to Create New Experiences and Convenience

Assess current products, services, and experiences from the perspective of these “introverted” customers, with the intention of introducing more introvert-friendly technology, services, and spaces.

For example, promote earlier specials that offer exclusivity for introverted consumers, like “quiet hours” or chef-curated experiences during earlier hours, or low-key entertainment experiences. Create solo or private spaces that allow people to experience your space while also engaging with their devices. Experiment with lower lighting and noise-canceling materials.

Innovate in digital platforms and partnerships to create new engagement opportunities. For example, mobile apps in stores or in restaurants that allow for collaborative commerce are gaining traction. Beyond promoting QR code menus, launch an app to let people order and pay from their devices between server visits.

Self-service becomes key. Launching a chatbot or knowledge base isn’t enough. ChatGPT and generative AI are teaching all consumers that they can control their experiences. Explore ways to put consumers in front of their experiences, end-to-end. This reduces unnecessary social interaction and the potential anxiety that goes along with it.

Reimagine virtual events and co-hosted experiences. New engagement opportunities could bridge the gap between online and offline interactions. For example, consider chef-hosted virtual experiences that teach consumers unique cooking methods in the comfort of their homes. Connect shoppers to experts who can help them navigate style, entertainment, beauty, or technology trends. Engage consumers by placing bartenders and sommeliers as hosts in virtual wine or cocktail classes and experiences. 

Foster an inclusive community. Hosting workshops, social clubs, or community service events can offer alternative ways for people to connect and support each other, to counter the effects of increased isolation or celebrate shared interests in what pulls them back home. For example, introvert hours during off-peak times, curated menus, props, solo experiences that include games or entertainment, can make people like they’re home.

Even if you’re not part of the introvert economy, understanding them and how these consumers evolve is how you gain understanding and empathy to better serve and engage them. Monitor trends. Stay informed about evolving consumer preferences and societal trends.

As society continues to navigate these changes, the ability to adapt and innovate in response to shifting consumer behaviors will be crucial for businesses looking to thrive in the evolving landscape.

For an idea of how times have changed, consider trends in the 3-month Treasury bill, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve System. On September 1, 1981, it was a whopping 14.70%; by September 1, 2021, it was just 0.04%. But on September 1, 2023, it was up to 5.32%.

Data from the Fed show that investors are responding to this recent rebound by pouring money into Treasuries and other fixed-income securities. And some ETFs make it easier to trade in Treasuries, as well as in municipal and corporate bonds. 

Bonds vs. Stocks

Treasuries are one of the most popular income investments. They are safe, being guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. They pay a good return. And unlike some lesser-known bonds or those not actively traded, Treasury securities are liquid. There is always a market for them. But how do Treasuries compare to other investments, such as stocks?

McKinsey & Company reports that, for the 25-year period ending in mid-June 2022, the S&P 500 returned 6.8 percent a year, including dividends. This is better than the return of today’s relatively high 3-month Treasury bill, which is a little over 5%. But the risk of losing money is higher in the stock market. Although equity market returns have been higher than fixed-income securities like bonds in many periods, there are also periods—in recent memory—when the stock market has had flat to negative returns. 

Bonds offer portfolios a return on money that is parked for expenses that are coming up or might arise. People feel comfortable having cash on hand for such expenses. But with inflation eating away at spending power, it is a waste of resources, especially when an investor can get around 5 percent today in relatively safe, liquid securities like Treasury Bills and investment-grade bonds.

New Ways to Buy Bonds  

The growth of exchange traded funds has changed the way many investors approach the stock and bond markets. With ETFs, an investor can pick the asset class they want and buy a package of securities that meets their needs, instead of trying to pick individual stocks or bonds. Owning many securities, even if it is in the same asset class, offers diversification, cutting a portfolio’s concentration risk. 

Recently F/m Investments, a provider of financial strategies to money managers and institutions, released the U.S. Benchmark Series Single Treasury ETFs. They make it possible to buy Treasury ETFs during stock market hours and lock in the current on-the-run yield—that is, the price and yield of the latest Treasury offering. 

These securities include a full maturity range of Treasury bills, bonds, and notes, from the 3-month Treasury Bill ETF (symbol: TBIL) to the 30-year Treasury Bond ETF (UTHY). But whatever the maturity term of the Treasuries, they remain in the ETF only until the next monthly rebalancing, and then those Treasury funds are rolled into the most recently Treasury offering of the same maturity. This usually changes the fund’s yield. Also keep in mind: The market price of publicly traded Treasuries and other income securities, in an ETF structure or as individual securities, will fluctuate, and money can be made or lost. 

But Treasury yields are attractive, especially on the short maturity end. At press time, the TBIL yield was 5.44%, and UTHY was 4.36%, although this yield will change constantly throughout a trading day as the market price changes.

These rates reflect an inverted yield: The shorter-term maturity bonds pay more than longer term maturity bonds. Usually, it is the opposite: Longer-maturity fixed-income securities pay a higher yield because of a perceived higher risk of climbing interest rates, which can cause the security to lose market value. 

The US Benchmark Series offers maturity date diversification. As interest rates fluctuate between the series offerings, investors can switch to a higher-yielding Treasury. The ETF series aims (but doesn’t guarantee) to pay interest monthly, another advantage over holding individual Treasuries. The expense ratio—operating costs, including any management fee—is reasonable at 0.15 % per annum. 

In July, Alex Morris, F/m’s president and CIO, announced that the US Benchmark Series had raised over $2.0 billion in assets under management (AUM) in less than a year—a substantial amount in that time period. Last May, TBIL won the ETF.com award for the Best New ETF of 2023. “The last thing you should do is worry about your Treasuries,” Morris tells Worth, saying that the simplest construction is to use the current series of outstanding Treasuries for the ETF. That would solve another problem: Treasuries have various maturities. A desired feature in the series, he felt, is that buyers should have access to the different maturities.

Bonds vs. Money Market and Savings Accounts

With the rise of short-term interest rates, some investors would rather keep things simple and hold money market funds, which provide returns by investing in high-quality debt securities. At press time, 3-Month Treasury ETFs had a higher return than many money-market funds, which hovered around 4.35% to 5.15%. But since ETF prices can and do fluctuate, and MMF’s attempt to stay at $1.00 a share, MMFs could be a more stable investment from a principal risk standpoint.

Investors looking for a fixed rate of interest with no market fluctuation could also consider high-interest savings accounts from providers such as CIT Bank or American Express National Bank. At press time, they went up to 5.05%. But that was still below the yield of the 3-month Treasury bill. And these savings accounts may have conditions or restrictions that ETFs don’t. A high-interest account might charge fees, require maintaining a minimum balance, or require leaving money in for a certain time period.  

Other Bond Investment Options 

Some investors may expect interest rates to dip and want to lock in the high yields of medium- and longer-term bonds by holding them until maturity. This isn’t possible with the US Benchmark, which continues rolling new Treasury issuances into the ETF. Also, there is the possibility of capital gains: The market price of higher-yielding bonds will rise if interest rates drop, and a bond holder can take a capital gain or continue holding.  

Invesco offers an alternative with its BulletShares ETFs, which hold hundreds of bonds in each maturity date, those bonds maturing from 2024 through 2033. BulletShares pay interest monthly and are actively traded. (Full disclosure: My clients and I own shares of TBIL and BulletShares.) 

BulletShares offers an investment-grade corporate bond series, which has a lower credit risk; a higher-risk high-yield corporate bond series; and a tax-free municipal bond series. Interest rates are attractive. The investment-grade 2026 maturity ETF (BSCQ) had a yield to worst, or YTW—the lowest possible potential yield—of 4.96% at press time. The high-yield series (BSJQ), maturing in 2026, had a YTW of 7.38%; the municipal bond (BSMQ) YTW was 3.03%.

Invesco provides an online “bond laddering” tool. It lets you create a portfolio by selecting the mix of bond series (based on risk/return), the timeframe for payouts, and the distribution of your investment across the various funds.

Unlike Treasury offerings, there is no Federal government backing in BulletShares. Payment obligations are from the issuing corporations in the investment-grade and high-yield ETFs; and local government authorities back the municipal ETFs. Of note: Municipal bonds are known to default at lower rates than corporate bonds, according to the Chicago Fed.

 The BulletShares offering has really grown since it launched in 2010. Jason Bloom, the head of fixed income, ETF strategy at Invesco, says he spent two years educating the market about target maturities, helping it raise its first $1 billion. He has since seen the ETF series grow to over $16 billion today and says it is growing faster than ever. 

Where is the Bond Market Headed?

Financial advisors feel confident that the Fed won’t be raising interest rates any more in the near future. “Clearly the consensus makes sense, and the Fed is not raising rates at the front end,” says Bloom, referring to short-term interest rates. Bloom said that further interest rate cuts, if and when they are made, all depend on inflation. “The Fed is slowing the economy to slow inflation,” he says, and this year everything depends on “how fast rates are going to come down at the front end of the curve.”

Bloom feels that the curve will un-invert soon, with short-term bond rates dropping and longer-term rates rising. And he sees an opportunity today in mid-term bonds. “I really think that in the 2- to 5-year maturity band is really where you’ll pick up a higher yield, because of the inverted curve,” he says, “and [it] has the most chance for capital appreciation if the Fed cuts rates.”

BulletShares can also effectively be used for bond laddering, as the following graphic shows.

There is an opportunity to receive a good return with a reasonable risk today in the bond market, and new financial products make it possible to select the degree and type of risk that you want. The objective of using them is the same as it has always been in this market: get a good return and understand what the risks are and how to avoid or minimize them.